September 11, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 10 day, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise, supported by the rebound of domestic and foreign futures and spot cotton prices, the prices of downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric stabilized, and the prices of downstream textile markets showed signs of improvement. The short-term market may continue to rebound. However, restricted by low consumption, the downstream market can not provide support for cotton prices.

3. imported cotton: at present, China is throwing and storing, and the paction price is relatively stable.

At the same time, dumping may cause more temporary quotas, which will have a negative impact on ICE cotton futures prices.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 10th, it planned to sell 45105.2150 tons of cotton reserves, and the actual turnover was 21830.7715 tons, with a turnover rate of 48.40%.

The weighted average paction price was 18609 yuan / ton on that day, and the 328 grade cotton price was 18655 yuan / ton (public weight), which was 99 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18754 yuan / ton.

5. cotton purchase and storage: in September 10th, according to the relevant provisions of the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan, the cotton reserve management company of China started the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2012.

No paction was made on the first day of storage.

6.ICE cotton: in September 10th, ICE futures ended two days after rising, slightly lower after investors adjusted their positions.

At present, the market as a whole waits for a strong mood. On the one hand, it waits for the outcome of the Fed discussions. On the other hand, the supply and demand report in USDA9 month will indicate the direction for the market.

Cotton prices will remain volatile until the answer is announced.

Summary:

Current storage

At the same time, prices vary.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve.

Operation continues on the basis of the 20 day average line to buy more ideas. Recently, the United States cotton has little influence on Zheng cotton.

[MEIKO futures] industry runs smoothly and cotton wave amplitude is limited.

Overnight, in September 10th, ICE futures rose for the two day, and slightly lower after investors adjusted their positions.

At present, the market as a whole waits for a strong mood. On the one hand, it waits for the outcome of the Fed discussions. On the other hand, the supply and demand report in USDA9 month will indicate the direction for the market.

Cotton prices will remain volatile until the answer is announced.

News: 1, September 10th, China's cotton reserve management company plans to launch a warehouse sale and reserve cotton 45105.2150 tons, actually clinch a deal of 21830.7715 tons, the turnover rate is 48.40%, the 328 grade cotton price is 18655 yuan / ton (public weight), compared with September 7th, it fell 1 yuan / ton, compared with the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18754 yuan / ton 99 yuan / ton, as of September 10th, the total turnover of the dumping store was 166 thousand and 700 tons, the turnover rate 65.01%.

2, yesterday started the purchase and storage plan, the price of 20400 yuan / ton, the first day of storage, no paction.

International market, in September 10th, affected by the rise of ICE cotton futures, the price of China's main port of import cotton generally rose, but not much.

At present, China is dumping its reserves, and the paction price is relatively stable.

At the same time, dumping may cause more temporary quotas, so it has a negative impact on ICE cotton futures prices. It is estimated that ICE cotton futures will continue to narrow.

From another perspective, China's purchasing and storage policy has begun to implement. However, due to the small number of new cotton listed, it is difficult to produce a large number of pactions at the moment, and the impact on the market remains to be seen.

The domestic market, 10, the domestic cotton spot prices continue to rise, supported by the domestic and foreign futures and spot cotton prices rebound support, downstream cotton yarn and gray cloth prices stabilized, the downstream textile market prices have signs of improvement, short-term market may continue to rebound pattern, but by the constraints of low consumption, the downstream market can not provide support for cotton prices.

Spot quotation, September 10th, the US C/A cotton 92.35 (cents / pound), folded RMB general port trade delivery price 15697 yuan / ton (calculated according to sliding tax);

97.85, the general port trade port price is 16429 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton 92.40, the general port trade pick up price 15686 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 89.35, the general port trade delivery price 15289 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19628 yuan / ton; B index CNCotton B 18754 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, yesterday's purchase and storage started, but due to the number of new flowers less, the first day to buy and store shaved heads, so the guiding nature of the price has not yet been revealed.

But judging from the level of policy encouragement this year is weaker than last year, it is estimated that the upper space brought by good profits to cotton prices is also very limited.

From the trend, the huge inventory of the world and the replacement of chemical fiber will form a long-term oppression.

The band is stable and the long-term trend pressure is not decreasing.

Cotton has little fluctuation in recent years.