The New Round Of Dumping And Storage Relates To The Trend Of Domestic Supply And Demand In 8-9 Months.

"P >" since this year, under the constraint of national dumping and storage pressure, Zheng cotton has been in a weak and volatile overall pattern for a long time. Now this round of dumping and storage is on schedule, whether the new round of dumping and storage is restarted is directly related to the future trend of domestic supply and demand pattern in 8-9.

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< p > under the above macro-economic environment, commodities, especially agricultural futures, are returning to their fundamentals. At present, Zheng cotton is at a fork in the road. Whether the new round of dumping and storage will start again is directly related to the future trend of domestic supply and demand pattern in 8-9.

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< p > if the reserve plan is restarted, it is expected that Zheng cotton will continue the early shock market. As of today, the China cotton reserve management company has accumulated a total of 3 million 700 thousand tons of sales and reserve cotton, and the total sales volume has reached a total of about 4 million 500 thousand tons. However, 800 thousand tons of state cotton can not be sold in the original deadline. If the new round of throwing and storing is launched, the surplus cotton throwing will continue to form a pressure on the domestic cotton market.

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< p > if there is no further dumping plan, cotton supply and demand will tighten in August, and Zheng cotton will usher in a wave of rising prices.

First of all, the domestic cotton supply is affected by the recent continuous low-temperature weather, the new year's cotton reduction in New Year's production is expected to be deeper than before; the domestic turnover inventory and the industrial inventory of the enterprises are at a low level. Although this round of dumping and storage is over, the cotton imports will rebound later, but this year's trade volume will be tightened. The scale of the external cotton recovery will not be able to effectively offset the supply of raw cotton stores. If there is no further dumping plan, it is expected that the domestic cotton supply will be tightened in the 8-9 months before the new cotton listing.

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< p > secondly, demand side, at present, < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > and a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > textile > products, domestic and export consumption deceleration operation, especially export.

The weak data in the two quarter of this year triggered high-level vigilance. A series of favorable policies were put forward before and after the end of July. For example, the export policy of export commodities including textiles and garments, and tax reduction policies for small and micro enterprises, etc., the introduction and fermentation of these favorable policies will surely boost the downstream consumption in the medium and long term.

In addition, August is the peak season for the traditional consumption in the lower reaches, so it is expected that the downstream consumption in August will be better than that in the early stage.

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< p > up to now, there is no conclusion on whether to throw the reserve again, but the market information is quite different.

On the one hand, the downstream enterprises generally expect that the state will reopen and store up, and the 800 thousand tons of unsold dump in the reserve plan will make it possible for the country to reopen and store the stock in the next stage. In retrospect, the implementation of dumping and storage in most countries in August was concentrated in August. But on the other hand, according to the cotton net, the relevant national ministries and commissions recently made clear again that the sale of the national cotton store after the end of July had not yet started the plan of the second round of bidding.

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Above all, in August, Zheng cotton market is still subject to policy.

If the market anticipate that the country will continue to implement further dumping and storage, it is estimated that the cotton price in August will continue to follow the long-range shocks in the early stage. If it is no longer abandoned, the supply and demand will be tightened on the basic level, and the probability of Zheng cotton uplink in August will be greater.

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